From the pinnacles of power by Fortune editor at large Patricia Sellers
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February 5, 2009, 3:04 pm

Discount retail woes: a quick tour

by Mina Kimes

While Wal-Mart (WMT) rules–its January same-store sales were up, beating expectations–other discount retailers are stumbling. Target (TGT) reported a 3.3% decline. Costco Wholesale’s (COST) January comp sales were flat in the U.S. and down 9% abroad. That news yesterday–along with a warning by Costco management that second-quarter earnings would fall “substantially below” consensus–sunk the stock 7%. And while it’s up slightly today, the shares are trading at their lowest level since 2005.

The culprit behind Costco’s profit woes is management’s strategy to drive prices down and pick up market share from competitors. Short-term pain for long-term gain is the big idea. It’s too early to know whether the strategy will pay off. But I saw this plan in action last week when I visited Costco’s headquarters in Issaquah, Wash., and stopped by its store right across the street. There I found a Costco employee who, like CEO Jim Sinegal, is on the hot seat: Louie Silveira.

The day I visited, Silveira, a company veteran who manages one of the 25 busiest of Costco’s 550 members-only warehouse stores, was scurrying around, fist bumping employees and directing customers through his maze of merchandise. Sales have weakened–particularly sales of discretionary merchandise, he said. “Food is doing great. “Non food…,” he added, his voice trailing off as he issued an order into his walkie-talkie.

Silveira doesn’t have a lot of power to change customer behavior, but he can tweak sales by adjusting store design. After he noticed that more customers were buying produce (as consumers dine out less, they cook more), he expanded that section’s footprint, or sales area. Showing me a floor map that he had penciled on a piece of cardboard, he gushed, “Things like shopping patterns, people flow—I dream about that stuff.”

For what it’s worth, Costco is getting better access than usual to big-ticket items like $80 Starbucks (SBUX) gift cards–the coffee retailer’s method of pumping up its own sagging sales without discounting in its own outlets. Silveira says he has sold $1 million worth of the Starbucks cards. He’s also offering an array of flat-screen TVs. Low prices squeeze Costco’s TV margins, but the company is gaining market share in an important category.

Silveira is aiming to poach upper-middle-class shoppers from department stores, electronics boutiques, and even luxury goods retailers. Just as he was boasting about his inability to keep bottles of Bordeaux on store shelves, an employee interrupted him to point out a new arrival in the wine section: Cristal champagne. The price: $219.99. That’s a good deal for an upscale brand, but in this environment, will budget-minded shoppers be game to pay up for it?

GROCERIES ONLY:
I’ve been the department manager over groceries/dairy for 2yrs now at Walmart and when it comes to the cheapest prices in town…it’s Walmart, hands down. If you enjoy the selective memberships that retailers have to offer Sams is the next cheapest. Once a week we are required to go to all of our competitors (Tom Thumb, Randalls, HEB, Kroger, Fiesta, COSTCO, and even SAMS) to check their prices and ensure our customers are getting a better deal. If our competitor is lower than us we’re required to go 10% lower than them. If in a sales add our competitor is lower than us a customer can bring the sales ad with them and we’ll match the price. How can you beat that???

Posted By Brandt Angleton, Texas : February 6, 2009 5:12 pm

I have been a member for years and used to work at the corporate office. I have found that the quality of the frsh foods is way down. Produce experiences include oranges that are all dry when you cut into them, potatoes with black centers and onions that are completely soft and mushy. I also purchased meat the was so foul that when bagged in three layers of plastic wrap and you could still smell it. Of course they took the meat back since it was purchased just fifteen minutes before, but I saw no one scrambling to get the huge case of lamb racks off of the floor. How often to customers like me get the bad food, don’t bring it back and just stop shopping there? As a rule, now, I use Costco for non-perishables only. Although the economy may be a significant factor, it should be considered that if the value was there, this would be the perfect time for folks to flock to Costco if the quality was consistant.

Posted By Bruce, Seattle, WA : February 6, 2009 1:53 pm

Ref the membership fees; Costco is able to maintain set thin product markups b/c of the revenue generated on membership fees. Most of thier profit is from the fees and other non-sales business (travel, AMEX cards, etc) If you eliminate millions of dollars in fees, guess where that revenue will be make up? COrrect, increasing the prices of products. COSTCO’s business model works and works well. Walmarts temporary surge is only that, temporary, just like McDonalds – another completely predictable result of a country in recession.

Posted By Marcus, New Providence, NJ : February 6, 2009 8:22 am

A lot of items in new jersey’s costco are way higher than even walmart (not to mention SAMs) higher prices + membership fees? dream on buddy!

Posted By Steven, Hackensack, NJ : February 6, 2009 3:09 am

Costco is quite possibly the best thing since sliced bread. I pay $300/year so my whole family can shop there and I still net a profit on the Amex rebate after paying the membership dues with it. Not to mention the amount I save on food, gas, TVs, furniture, Insurance, and everything else.

Posted By Kyle, Ohio : February 6, 2009 2:22 am

$50 fee reduces shoplifting and prevents them from being accused of racism.

Posted By Edna, Denver, Colorado : February 6, 2009 1:06 am

Cosco has gone to private label…so then you have no idea of quality or comparison….and therefore no reason to go there…plus if you factor in the once a year price to belong….there is a creditability factor….

Posted By Len,Rancho Santa Margrita,Ca : February 6, 2009 12:11 am

Regarding the complaints, realize first that it is simply impossible to please everyone. Their prices on most items are great, especially gas, clothes, prescriptions, contact lenses, and even the food court. Many items they sell are packaged exclusively for Costco. That makes it difficult to compare prices (on purpose). Use their American Express card and the annual rebate more than pays for the membership fee. Costco’s return policy is 1,000% better than most stores including Target & Best Buy. There are 3 Costco’s close to me. Each one has items the other Costco’s don’t carry. It’s because they can have different Buyers for each store. I shop at Costco’s several times each week. Their biggest pitfall to me is service. Most employees (not all) are not friendly, including managers. They simply don’t put the customer first. That’s a direct reflection of management & training. I am very willing to put up with that, for the price savings. You go to Costco for price, not personal service. But I work in the service business and it’s amazing to me that they do so much business without courteous employees. Often the cashiers and clerks at the doors don’t offer a greeting, a “thank you” or a parting comment. In contrast, I’ve noticed the employees at my local Home Depot’s are starting to be very courteous, helpful and friendly. Obviously Home Depot corporate has told them to do so, to help insure the doors stay open in this economy. Costco overall is a great store.

Posted By Tom H., Irvine, CA : February 5, 2009 11:51 pm

If you don’t want to pay the 50 dollar fee you can buy Costco gift cards on ebay that lets you shop there as long as there is value on the card

Posted By Doug Dallas,tx : February 5, 2009 11:16 pm

I want to say that I can’t believe what I am reading but unfortunately I can. This is a solid case of “penny wise and dollar foolish”. I have an Executive membership at Costco and have been a member since 18. Every year I get multiples of my membership fee back as a check every year so I am effectively paid to shop there. In addition no one beats Costco on paper products, gas, and I believe diapers as well. I have no loyalty to any company other than the one with the best price and regularly search the internet with my iphone in the aisles to verify I am getting the best deal. Costco can’t compete with the internet on electronics or diamonds and is 50/50 with alcohol but they are better than any other major retailer and that is where most people shop. How can you not like a place that pays you to shop AND delivers cheaper prices?
Most people want convenience so if that is the case don’t blame the retailer.
One other tidbit of info, the rich and the poor shop at places like Costco, TJ Maxx, and every other discount retailer. The rich because they understand the value of their money, the poor because they have to. Only the middle class feels the need to spend full price. The problem is there is no such thing as a middle class, unless of course you believe that only having 2-6 months salary in the bank and a new car is somewhere between rich and poor.

Posted By Mike, Los Angeles, CA : February 5, 2009 11:13 pm

try Aldi, cheaper and no membership fee, very few brands but great quality products.

Posted By Brian, Kansas, KS : February 5, 2009 10:04 pm

Comparing Costco to Sam’s Club is like comparing Obama to GOD. We all know which one is better( Change…Hope ). Sams Club is full of white trash and never busy. It’s like a Rosanne Barr, Rosie O’Donnell run day care center.

Posted By Mike Fallbrook, Ca : February 5, 2009 9:59 pm

I shop for our family of 4 at Costco at least once if not twice a week. To feed a family nutritious, whole food they are far superior to Sam’s Club or BJ’s which is predominantly processed. Costco’s fresh produce is fantastic and generally a great deal. The quality of their products is very high and they have a more than fair return policy if you’re not satisfied for any reason. I also find that the employees are generally friendly and helpful. The $50.00 or $100.00 fee is nothing compared to the savings and then the $250-$300 rebate check we get each year. I don’t shop there because of the rebate check. I shop there because they have a great abundance of whole, unprocessed and organic food at very reasonable prices. If any store will make it through this downturn, Costco will!

Posted By Margaret, Charlotte, NC : February 5, 2009 9:24 pm

My life is simple:
Walmart + Superstore + Canadian Tire

So.. I don’t think COSTCO have any chance to survive in 3 years? Keep it simple:
1 Compare the price!
2 Store location!
3 Terrible service!
World is so big, why go to COSTCO!

Posted By BILL Calgary AB : February 5, 2009 9:22 pm

I am a very satisfied Costco shopper. But, I know when to buy at Costco and when to buy at another retail location within the area.

Reasons I would recommend Costco:

#1 I believe Costco will refund your membership price if you are unsatisfied.
#2 The return policy at Costco is very cusomter friendly.
#3 If you are near a Costco gas station, you will typically save $0.05 per gallon or more as compared to surrounding stations.

For me, with an executive membership and costco american express, I more than recoup the cost of membership.

No, I do not own Costco stock.

Posted By Costco Shopper, San Diego, CA : February 5, 2009 9:07 pm

If you think costco prices are less, you need to shop around more. Their prices are less than the regular sale prices but almost all the time you can get items that are better priced than costco and you don’t need to buy in bulk. You can easily find a gallon milk for less than $2. For getting $400 cash back at 2% you need to spend $20000. There are many cards out there that will gives 2-3% cash back

Posted By John, WA : February 5, 2009 9:06 pm

I encourage more people to stop shopping at Costco because they don’t like the $50 fee. Us that Save the $50 per trip alone, would love to have less people to fight while shopping! If your buying the right products, and still compare shopping, you’ll save your membership fee, times 20!

Posted By Kevin, Yucaipa CA : February 5, 2009 8:32 pm

There margins are razor thin so they’ll never abandon membership fees. Luckily they treat their employees like garbage. Most of them are routinely kicked to the curb during the holidays so they can rehire cheaper employees.

Posted By Anonymous : February 5, 2009 7:48 pm

I think costco is way too high compare to Sams,the only thing that Costco has over Sams is Electronics, do you also know if you find similar item you could match it with Sams? and give you so called 2 yr warranty with it too.
Im a super shopper …name me one item that Costco has isnt higher than Sams?
I love Costco bread though…
Look for instance their XBOX bundle PS3 WII sony top of line Vizios.
Got my TV Vizio XVT 42 LCD 120 for $699 shipped …Costco has it for $999 now ..bit that costco.
Im a member of Costco and Sams.
Their Meat for instance is way too high than Sams I love Sams I live there… I even know their price code …
You notice with sams they have 81 and the end of their price or 88 91.
thats how long they had an Item.
I should be on 20/20
Costco doesnt have good deals …
Don’t have clearance rack like sams.
I bought my 20″ vizio for $100 refurbished
Enough later

Posted By Rich Cincinnati Ohio : February 5, 2009 7:40 pm

The membersip fee for Costco is established so they can offer discounts on products like tobacco and alcohol that are far below the regulated price structure determined by some states. By charging a membership fee it allows Costco to show that the general public does not have access to these prices, only those willing to pay a fee. As for not paying a fee to shop somewhere is your choice. My opinion is that you pay a controlled fee upfront or get hosed by fees in the form of a normal retail margins. I used to work for Costco and I can tell you that they care more about their members than they do about their stock price. If there is anything this economic downturn can teach us is that sucessful companies care about where their money is coming from.

Posted By Las Vegas. : February 5, 2009 7:40 pm

The $50.00 buck barrier is nice. It ensures that the customers are nicer and that stores are cleaner.

Posted By Skreet Atlanta, GA : February 5, 2009 7:26 pm

We are a family of six and probably save our annual executive membership fee on milk alone. Costco is our major source of food items and things like paper towels, toilet paper (yes, Costco IS cheaper on this no matter what you’ve read elsewhere) and cleaning products. Executive membership is great – returned us like $400 last year for our $100 executive membership fee. Great store, especially for these difficult times.

Posted By Leon, Anchorage, Alaska : February 5, 2009 7:24 pm

Costco is great for us. We save a lot on gas, food, and electronics. They also have great deals on services as well such as insurance and others. I bought my tires from their store, with the coupon of course. And with that, we get free tire rotation and tire inflation for the rest of the tire life. That alone worth more than the yearly fees.

Posted By Cathy, Atlanta, GA : February 5, 2009 7:14 pm

It’s ridiculous to think that Costco’s prices depend on my membership fee, which is a mere fraction of our typical bill there.

Drop the fee and you’ll get more shoppers. Once they’re in the store you’ll get you fee back, and some.

Posted By Tom Boulder NV : February 5, 2009 7:08 pm

I’ve been a member for quite some time and won’t give it up. Even with a small household, I have saved more than my membership fee many times over. If you know your pricing and shop smart, Costco can beat everyone else. You also can’t beat their return policy.

Posted By M. Cincinnati, OH : February 5, 2009 6:44 pm

I LOVE costco. membership fee. yeah, you can make more with their exec. membership. :)

Posted By pm Bothell WA : February 5, 2009 6:25 pm

Americans pay $8B for bottled water when they can get it for free out of the tap… obviously lower prices are not the silver bullet for retailers to attempt to gain market share and/or lead their markets. Escaping this destructive cycle lies in focusing relentlessly on your customers rather than your competitors. Your customers are better informed about their purchases than ever before, but are you learning as much about them and how they view your products? Scientific micromarketing allows you to assess how each customer values your product and offer that exact price every day in every market. Price is the most important lever at the organization’s disposal to influence demand, revenues, and margins. It’s time for retailers to adopt a new practical solution (especially in this market) that is based on science and mathematics, and it’s called scientific micromarketing.

Posted By Sid Mansur, Washington DC : February 5, 2009 6:20 pm

The $50 we spend on the Costco membership is made up in two months at their gas stations. They are alway 10-15 cents per gallon under the retailers price. We also get 2% back on our purchases using the AE Costco Card and that is usually over $200 a year. $50 is nothing.

Posted By Joe Hibbard, Boise, ID : February 5, 2009 6:06 pm

I AGREE….DELETE THE YEARLY FEE….WATCH SALES INCREASE!

Posted By TAG, PITT. PA. : February 5, 2009 6:03 pm

Without the membership fee they could not offer the low prices and you would still not shop there.

Posted By Anonymous : February 5, 2009 5:46 pm

Same Here

Posted By Bob, Las Vegas NV : February 5, 2009 5:45 pm

I too quit shopping at costco because of the membership fee

Posted By Mark, Plano, Texas : February 5, 2009 5:44 pm

I love Costco, the member fee is naminal to the benefits you get along with the deals. I think I’d live there if I could.

Posted By Jerry, Herndon, VA : February 5, 2009 5:39 pm

@Robert Mills

Uh why? I save so much by having a membership at costco. The discount on cleaning supplies alone is worth the 50 dollars a year

Posted By Jason Thomas, Hazlet, NJ : February 5, 2009 5:15 pm

I would vote for higher membership fee, and keep the goods’ price low or lower.

Posted By Wendy Johnson, Atlanta GA : February 5, 2009 5:09 pm

Costco works if you plan well. I use a Costco-Amex cobranded card which gets me 2% cash back on all my purchases at Costco. I get 2% additional off at Costco on fuel and that’s on top of the rate that is 15c-20c cheaper than other pumps.

On a yearly basis, if I account for fuel purchases of $1000 for my car and my wife’s car, I save $20 as cash back and another $50-$100 on gas prices which more than compensates for the $50 membership fee.

I love to buy wine, fruits, diary and cereals/breads/nuts there. Overall I can tell you, I will save money at Costco.

Ronny

Posted By Ronny, SFO, CA : February 5, 2009 5:08 pm

I pay the executive fee, $100. You get 1% back on all purchases except gas, every year that membership pays for itself.

Posted By Anonymous : February 5, 2009 4:34 pm

I second what Robert Mills said below with a twist,

The other day, I went BULK food shopping at wal mart and the cashier asked me, “How come you dont go to Sam’ club”

I responded with “Why would I want to pay to shop”…..are you kidding….

So yea, Kuddos to Robert, I think the days of “paying for discounts” are over

Posted By Joseph Tamargo Rochester New York : February 5, 2009 4:30 pm

If you use the American express Card the 1-2% you will get back will pay for this fee plus and the card has no fee….. you don’t make any sense? you saving 50 but losing 100 plus!

Posted By Ken, Stratford CT. : February 5, 2009 4:22 pm

While the membership fee is a bit of an added burden, I feel that it is more than worth it for the way that I shop. I normally drop $500-$700 per trip at costco with the majority of that going to bulk items/frozen foods. I probably save more than the membership cost every time I shop.

Posted By Damon, Pullman Wa. : February 5, 2009 4:18 pm

I purchase the Executive membership, and I more than get it back by the rebates Costco gives. Add the AmEx card rebate on gas, and I am making money! Costco is now my first stop for groceries.

Posted By TW Peterson, Indianapolis, IN : February 5, 2009 4:13 pm

We have been a member of Costco for over 8 years. We dropped our membership last Nov. 2008 due to the $50.00 yearly fee. Could not justify spending $50.00 for the “privilege” to shop there. Costco has some good deals, but they are not competitive on alot of items.

Posted By Monika Rey, Dallas, Texas : February 5, 2009 4:13 pm

I think the $50 membership is worth it if you are savvy enough to 1) only buy something that is actually cheaper and/or you will use all and 2) you spend enough there rto make back that $50. I just bought a 26″ lcd for my computer that was $80 less then anywhere else, that paid for my membership and then some

Posted By Aaron, Pocatello ID : February 5, 2009 4:07 pm

The Costco membership fee IS discretionary spending that I am no longer willing to pay. I’d continue shopping there if I didn’t have to fork over $50 for the “privilege” to do so. For now I shop elsewhere.

Posted By W. Robert Mills, Vancouver, WA : February 5, 2009 3:33 pm
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