From the pinnacles of power by Fortune editor at large Patricia Sellers
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December 2, 2008, 11:34 am

How to thrive in turbulent times

“A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” Have you heard that line lately? Rahm Emanuel, President-elect Barack Obama’s new chief of staff, recently used it. So did Merck (MRK) CEO Dick Clark, noted management guru Jim Collins, who used the line as the centerpiece of a talk at the Fortune 500 Forum in Washington, D.C. on Monday.

Collins delivered a mega-dose of passion and pragmatic ideas, starting with the message that “good is the enemy of great.”  That idea, of course, is the premise of his best-selling management guide, Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap…and Others Don’t (2001). But now Collins is reaching beyond to study how great companies decline to mere “goodness” — or worse, irrelevance or death. Turbulence exposes weakness, as he notes, and now we see evidence in so many once-great companies that have fallen fast — Circuit City, Fannie Mae (FNM), Motorola…the list goes on.

There’s a wealth of lessons here — and you’ll read them in the book that Collins plans to begin writing soon. A brief preview: Decline is typically self-inflicted, he has found. Decline usually occurs in stages. Stage 1 begins with hubris. Then comes undisciplined pursuit of big bets. Stage 3 is denial, followed by a grasping for salvation. (Sound familiar?) The lucky — or smart — companies don’t reach stage 5, which is capitulation to irrelevance or death.

An encouraging note from Collins: Companies can reach stage 4, grasping for salvation, and turn around. It happened to IBM (IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (HWP). And to Disney (DIS) and Xerox (XRX) too. Xerox’s Anne Mulcahy, Collins believes, is one of the best CEOs of the past 20 years. Each of these companies used decline, he noted, as a productive catalyst for change.

And what is the key to recovery when things turn so bad? If you’re a student of Collins, you can probably guess. Talent! As Collins has said often and repeated Monday, you need to figure out who is on your bus before you decide where the bus is going. Obama seems to be taking that guideline to heart. CEOs must too, particularly as turbulence spreads. As Collins said, “The best hedge against uncertainty is to have the best people on board.”

Very nteresting learning happens for all of us during crisis times. Did we over emphasise on innovate marketing models by forgetting systemic risks? Did we create financial innovation strategies by using all kinds of creative accounting patterns ignoring conservative fundamentals? Borrowing Greenspan terminology of irrational exhuberance should always guide us to understand economic changes as incremental and not dramatical or radical.

Posted By Dr.Hemjith Balakrishnan – Mumbai (India) : May 28, 2009 2:57 am

There is only one way to thrive in tough times. Live on less than you make! Save 10 % of all you make for a rainy day fund. Never charge anything you can’t pay back(in full) on a 30 day basis. Don’t live for materialism but for meaning in your life–time is the most valuable treasure we have–use it to make your spouse, child, family closer. Use it to give to someone who will never be able to repay you. This will be the best investment you ever made.

Posted By Geo Washington, AL : December 4, 2008 12:13 pm

Now here is a man who has his act together. Make lemonade even from even the rottenest of lemons. No media hype here, just the truth. Thanks Mr. Collins.

Posted By Mike, Charlotte, NC : December 4, 2008 8:41 am

hmmm…last time that i checked a mainframe was a little more complicated than a GMC Jimmy. But that point aside I think that it is important to remember that the companies cited in the article above IBM, Apple, Xerox, Disney all had critical years where the companies themselves were at stake and they had to cut back on poor performing brands and products, reduce inflated management and payrolls and consolidate production capacity. Sounds like a similar parallel to the Auto industry now…

Posted By Andrew, Ottawa, Canada : December 3, 2008 5:17 pm

If you are going to give high praise to companies like Merck, IBM, HP, Disney, Xerox, and Apple, remember that none of these companies manufacture or sell anything as complex as an automobile to the public. None of the Wall Street financial “powerhouses” are remotely capable of manufacturing automobiles. Perhaps the liability scares them too much.

Yet for decades the Big Three automakers invested heavily in automation – which requires computers and money. How many Xerox copiers did the Big Three buy? IBM or HP computers systems? How many people get to DisneyWorld with automobiles?

A huge part of these non-automotive companies’ revenue comes from the auto industry, so if the Big Three go down, the others’ profits also go down.

And if Detroit is saddled with overcapacity, then other companies who built up also suffer from overcapacity.

It’s turbulent times only for those companies which played leverage games to build up their capacity. The weasels of Wall Street (and short-term speculative investors), pushy brats all, who howled for high returns should never be listened to again.

When FDR refused to bail out – provide liquidity – to the financial industry in the Great Depression, it was to force that industry to flush out all the conniving, lying, and demanding-speculating players. No money, no games.

That has not happened yet to Wall Street, the enormous liquidity provided by the Federal Government did not include forcing out all the over-compensated players in the financial industry. And until those people are gone, with new laws passed to prevent abusive contracts masquerading as “financial innovation” from being legal (enforceable in court), the rest of us will sit this one out.

Posted By Jason Stoons, Austin TX : December 3, 2008 4:31 pm

Will the big three car makers waste the crisis or turn around with a possible taxpayer bailout, as mentioned by Collins, if they can reach stage 4, “grasping for salvation”? Instead of slow decline maybe they should start from the scratch to be more competitive in the market by outcasting competitors thru new innovations? But for that a key to recovery is surely expected of them: A talent, in their “turnaround plans”!!

Posted By Madhu Aryal, Manhattan, New York city : December 3, 2008 3:06 pm

Spend away on your business. Currently, I am making all the small – time consuming expenditures for my business that will have large payout in the end.

If your business is slow now. Do those things that you really need to do to make things better, but that you can’t quite get too when things are fast.

When the economy turns around, I will have six new products to launch. I am a Magician – Benjamin Corey (www.yourmagic.net) so that means I will have new shows to offer to audiences when they are ready.

I’m mastering every area where people buy my shows now – so that when the economy returns, I will focus on performing.

Its your turn. Do you build your business while your competition recoils in fear? Where will you be in three years? Where will they be?

Magically,

Benjamin Corey

Posted By Benjamin Corey Feinblum Bethesda, Maryland : December 2, 2008 10:19 pm

Jim Collins has been my favorite business management guru for years. His optimistic hard working insight is priceless.

Posted By Kent in Provo, UT : December 2, 2008 7:20 pm

Looking forward to read the upcoming book by Collins as I have enjoyed his prior ones tremendously. By the way, I have just finished reading “The Big Gamble”: Are you investing or speculating? by Jose Roncal and Jose Abbo. This book is an eye opener as it takes you back to the GO GO years, the Nifty Fifty’s, the internet bubble and up to the recent Financial crisis and the Detroit meltdown. The book provides insight as to what make leaders out of laggards during tough economic times including financial flexibility, operating flexibility and diverse product offerings. It furher states that the word “innovation” has a very ring to it. It says, “We’re bright and original and we make things happen! However, it points out that companies must turn ideas to cash to survive. The book provides insight as to whether visionaries like Jobs and Bezos will drive their companies to become another RCA, Zenith, Polaroid or Osborne Computer corporation or would they be around in 10, 50 or 100 years from now. The book deals with corporate survival from a different perspective and it is written in plain english and without jargon or blue sky economic and business theory. I can not wait to enhance my learnings by Collins wealth of lessons.

Posted By James Taylor, Atlanta, Georgia : December 2, 2008 4:43 pm
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Jessica ShamboraJessica Shambora started with Fortune as a reporter in June of 2008, following a stint as assistant editor at Travel+Leisure Golf. Shambora has written for Sports Illustrated, SI Latino, Women's Health, and Triathlete. She is a frequent contributor to Postcards.
Every year Fortune and the U.S. State Department sponsor the Global Women Leaders Mentoring Partnership, which brings rising-star women from developing countries to the U.S. to work closely with participants of the annual Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit - among them CEOs Andrea Jung of Avon, Ann Moore of Time Inc., and Anne Mulcahy of Xerox.
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