From the pinnacles of power by Fortune editor at large Patricia Sellers
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September 18, 2008, 3:04 pm

Morgan’s Mack fights the attacks

It feels like an earthquake on Wall Street, and Morgan Stanley’s (MS) CEO is trying to stay standing. On Monday a week ago, Mack told me, “I’m not thinking about selling the firm. I’m thinking about investing in the firm in a big way.” Morgan shares have fallen 58% since, and they’re down 18% just today.

Wachovia (WB) CEO Bob Steel phoned Mack yesterday to talk about a possible merger, according to sources at Morgan Stanley. Speaking to employees this morning at the firm’s headquarters in midtown Manhattan, Mack said that he is considering a Wachovia deal, though it may require an “innovative” structure. He told employees that he’s also talking with other potential partners, including China Investment Corp., China’s sovereign wealth fund, which bought 9.9% of Morgan last December. Mack also spoke with Citigroup (C) CEO Vikram Pandit this week, he said, but since there were people at both companies who were “cynical” about a combination, they mutually agreed to end their discussion.

Wachovia looks like Morgan’s most likely partner. Mack and Wachovia CEO Bob Steel, both Duke University grads, know and like each other from serving on the Duke Board of Trustees together. Wachovia wouldn’t be a very healthy partner, however. Bad mortgage loans, largely from its acquisition of Golden West Financial two years ago, have sunk its stock 76% in the past 12 months. (Bank of America (BAC) is down 41%, and  J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) is flat, in comparison.) But as major players have rushed to get together (BofA is buying Merrill Lynch; J.P. Morgan scooped up Bear Stearns), the remaining dance parners aren’t real pretty.

This week, Mack, according to close sources, has been fuming about the fix that he and Morgan Stanley are in, particularly since the firm announced better-than-expected earnings on Tuesday. Mack blames short-sellers for spreading lies and driving down the stock prices of the investment banks. He’s shared his anger with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, SEC Chairman Chris Cox, and Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein. Mack and Blankfein, in fact, have talked a half a dozen times in the past few days.

Meanwhile, Goldman shares have slid 43% in the past year. If the crisis continues, even Goldman, Wall Street’s model firm, could be forced into some kind of merger. It’s stunning to think that six months ago, there were five independent U.S. investment banks: Morgan, Goldman, Merrill, Bear, and Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy on Monday. Now there are two independent firms.

When will it end? “I wish I knew,” Mack told employees this morning. As for whether Morgan Stanley can remain independent, he said, “Listen, at the end of the day, we’re going to do what’s in the best interest of shareholders.”

I agree with a lot of SW Independent with the following exceptions:

1) Joe went to closing on a McMansion he could not afford but was too stupid to pony up $300 for an attorney to explain the contract to him. I never bought land, a building, or a home, without a reputable attorney reviewing the contract for the “fine print”. If Joe could not afford to pay an attorney, obviously he could not afford the house.

2) Your assessment of the S@L crisis of the 80’s was only partly true. The epicenter of that disaster was in the oil patch, OK, TX, and LO. Carter passed the Windfall profits tax before leaving office, and the oil developers, said” Screw your tax, we will shudder the wells, before we pay the Govt tax”. This started with Penn Square Bank in OKC, when drillers defaulted on notes and the other institutions followed. Not only that, Ole Jimmy began the biggest increase of oil imports that we now suffer the price of today. Trying to get a job in OK and Texas was darn near impossible back then, the S@L’s fluttered for a few years but that was the trigger to bankrupt those thrifts. At least now, Texas is reaping big growth, nice to see after the liberals screwing guys back then whom drilled for $1 Million per day, much higher now, are making their money back. Liberals still have not figured out when you have your arse at risk you want profit and do not want Washington’s greedy hands on your money. That tax cost taxpayers billions. Yankees don’t understand if you hit a dry hole, like often happens you just lost, well $2.5 million per day today. Tough business they are in, and very expensive, i am a cpa and am not a oilman, but they deserve every penny they get. One bad site can ruin you, even when geologists believe it is a money maker.

3) Do you honestly believe Chinese financials are reliable and transparant? Do they include govt subsidies for dumping products below costs or violating copyright laws? Geez i have swampland in Fl to sale if you believe that one. All we need is the Chinese in our business affairs, we are going to go to war with them eventually, i could care less if their whole country falls in the oceans. You made perfect since till those statements. They are not independent companies, the Govt supplies many of them and has had slave labor in the past that we pay for at Wal-Mart. I would love to audit some of their companies and follow the money trail, it will all lead to the party in charge.

Posted By Dan, Dallas, TX : September 19, 2008 7:23 am

Interesting post. I just did a Google Trends graph of the top 5 banks on my Word Face-Off blog. The only bank not to have increasing Google-popularity is JP Morgan. It also came in dead last even though it supposedly had the 2nd highest total assets. Does anyone have any idea why this would be? Thanks.

Posted By Francis Deblauwe, Saratoga, CA : September 19, 2008 3:00 am

I am a Wachovia/Golden West Employee… I want everyone to know that the aquisition of Golden West is not the problem for Wachovia. If everyone did their homework, Golden West stocks were at a high of $114 prior to the acquisition 2 years ago, to date it’s approximately $14.50 and the delinquency ratio was 0.75%; today it’s at 4.19%. With the average of all banks mortgage delinquency ratio is at 11% “Golden West” is still a profitable aquisition for Wachovia.

Posted By Brian K., San Antonio, TX : September 18, 2008 11:24 pm

John Mack, crying about shorters shorting his stock. Of course he’s crying he’s worrying about his assets. A guess when you’re that rich, you can get the Attorney General of NYS (Andrew Cuomo) to shake things up on Wall Street and start twisting arms.

Posted By LD, New York, NY : September 18, 2008 10:51 pm

As a former Morgan Stanley employee, who was laid off in 2001 when Phillip Purcell ran the organization, I can affirm when the company was run under John Mack there was always a solid leadership. Both he and the company will rise to the challenge because this current crisis, at best, would have proven difficult even for the most solid of institutions. Additionally, I know that along with Mr. Mack, Morgan Stanley will put their best people forward to find a solution to this challenge. However, at the end of the day, I believe that Mr. Mack will do what’s in both the best inetrests for the company and it’s shareholders; even if it means doing a deal with a commercial bank. Again, I believe at his core, Mr. Mack is Morgan Stanley through and through. He will do what must be done to ensure the survival of the company.

Posted By J. Brown Auckland N.Z. : September 18, 2008 9:54 pm

Hey JC in VA – Your angry – that is clear from the tone of your comments, but you are missing the bigger picture here and to avoid repeating histroy you owe it to yourself to get educated. All of America needs to get educated. It wasn’t just Wall Street that was in denial – the entire country was. There is a reason why commercial and institutional banks aren’t combined (check your history 1933 and the laws). One executive giving money to another in the same company is not a good practice (remember the Savings and Loan Scandal – it was just that). It takes a lot of players for a mess this big (yes even the consumer) played a part). 1. The average Joe bought more than he (or she) could afford. 2. The developers and home/land owners drove up prices (which cities and towns reaped the tax revenue from). But they did say anything. 3. The commercial (not institutional) banks gave into the frenzy because there was no other investment to be had in America (manufacturing is gone, the tech bubble broke a long time ago, and more and more jobs are getting outsourced) so…. they gave and gave and gave – but 4. There were several mortgage companies (mainly the smaller – not yet regulated ones) who did the real bad thing here – they committed fraud by changing applications on those average Joe’s and sold adjustable mortgages on speculation with out considering or advising the average Joe of the risk (although in fairness the average Joe that was told was too GREEDY to listen). Yes John McCain might be saying Wall Street is greedy but so was the average Joe who bought more house than he could afford grabbing at the American dream. OK – so the media doesn’t help – feeding everyone with a materialistic desire that can never be satisfied. 5. And then in walks the bigger bank who buys up the securities (common practice) and they did something – they followed folks like Milken (hmmm, former junk bond trader gone to jail) who wrapped these things into tight little complex bundles called credit swaps, wraps etc…which were than insured and packed some more and then sold to – hmmm other bigger fish – like Morgan Stanley, etc…. Now Wall Street Institutional banks like Morgan, Goldman etc…..should have done more due diligence but I don’t think they thought they were being conned either and they paid that price to the tune of $9 Billion + in write downs and I watched friends walk out of Lehman with their lives in a cardboard box (thousands – isn’t that enough of a pay-back for you). Oh yeah they arrested a couple of those mortgage brokers etc…doing that nasty application manipulation – but hard to catch a bunch of criminals who already ran with the money they made and left shredded paper behind (remember they were small and not regulated).
6. Then came the bankruptcy – well this is economics 101 – the constant pressure of a free economy demanding profit growth puts pressure on companies to keep growing (any way they can) or they are out of business. This is often why companies go out of business – they over grown and can’t keep up with the pace. But in Wall Street it is all about cash and leverage of getting cash to fuel those big investments to fuel the economy. So when Lehman’s debt could not be recovered because the un-realized bad debt (remember they were conned by those they bought it from) and because it was so systemic a problem – no one knew how deep it went and WHAM they got clobbered.
7. In come the short sellers (which appears to have started in Mumbai – hmmm that should be interesting to find out who in India is short selling American Institutions – and naked short selling at that, which should be illegal cause they don’t even have the actual stocks in their dirty little paws to be selling – but there it goes – WHAM. Welcome to a global economy. That is exactly why China is a fantastic partner for Morgan Stanley – because for once a TRUE global company will emerge – and an Institutional Bank at that – and just so you know (cause it is clear you don’t) – an American will trade your account – because that is the SEC LAW. However, the advantage is – Morgan will have a true international partner who understands and is connected to the fastest growing country in the world. Morgan will not be limited to the trashed out American Banks that have the worse balance sheets in the world right now. China has the best balance sheets in the world. Get it?

Now how does that happen – oh ya know when the government doesn’t watching enough and the American people are stupid and let themselves get into these messes and then blame everyone they can so they can stay in that denial state avoiding ever really growing up and taking responsibility for their actions. Think – how many times did all of us hear someone say – these housing prices are outrageous and I don’t know if I can buy a house etc….did it ever occur to anyone that it was inflated and what is inflated one days becomes un-inflected (depressed) ? It sure did me – which is why I didn’t BUY a house in that market. So in the future – use you gut – own less – be respectful of risk – don’t gamble what you don’t have. Diversify your portfolio and you will win in the long run and make sure you have a broker who understands that the money to made in the future is in the global market not just the US and do not give in – whatever you do – to either side of this ridiculous excuse of a presidential race – because neither of them are saying anything worth listening to when it comes to the economy. McCain and Obama made millions on the last few years on the housing market and short selling – don’t be fooled – get smart and protect your pie by investing locally and in what you know. Always – always know what you are investing in and if your broker can’t explain it – get out. Don’t buy more than you can afford – it is bad karma and don’t be quick to blame – it shuts you down from learning and being able to go on and grow. Educate yourself! An un-enlightened person is an easily manipulated person – don’t’ give in to that!

Posted By SW Independent, USA : September 18, 2008 7:06 pm

And you in East Bumbleville, VA get it? Hindsight is 20/20 so it’s easy to sit somewhere in the middle of the boonies and play the blame game, but what’s the mark of a great leader is being able to restore confidence in your firm as well as influence the industry. I think the rally which just took place in the market is proof of the resolve and strong leadership which he truly has. At least Mack fights where as Blankfien isn’t doing snyhting but watching his billions fade away and counting his stacks.

Posted By BM, NYC, NY : September 18, 2008 4:48 pm

Mack doesn’t get it. He lacks credibility. No one believes him. He was one of the site foremen when this house of cards was under construction.

Posted By jc,charlottesville,va : September 18, 2008 4:34 pm

from 5 shining stars… to 3… to 2…
who’s going to manage my wealth and retirement money ? a Chinese sovereign fund ? the US Treasury ? or no-one at all, since my hard-earned $$$ are gone for good ? Retire rich ? I wish I was Chuck, or Dick, I’d be well off on the back of poor suckers like me !

Posted By fred roger LA Ca : September 18, 2008 4:20 pm

johnny mack owns more MS than any other individual on the planet (look it up or ask your broker to look it up on a bloomberg terminal.) so when he speaks about the shareholders, he speaks about himself first. my guess is that he is now only worth a quarter of a billion in MS stock.

Posted By winston smith, new york, ny : September 18, 2008 4:02 pm

Unbelievable how the media can take someone’s comments out of context and manipulate them to prove a point. If I learned anything this week about the media is completely and utterly disgusting in how it reports “factual information” to the public. No journalist should be happy with themselves if they write about the financial industry. SHAME ON YOU ALL!!!

Posted By BM, NYC, NY : September 18, 2008 3:30 pm
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